ARCHIVED BLOG POSTS
2009
After rising significantly over the last couple of weeks, mortgage rates moved higher again this week, but at a much slower pace. Strong demand for this week's large Treasury auctions helped keep mortgage rates relatively stable. At current yields, both foreign and domestic investors showed above...
06/15/2009
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MBS prices are up +20/32 (FNMA 30-yr 4.5 at 98.91), above the initial price level at +15/32. MBS markets moved higher early due to weakness in the stock market. After that, they remained in a narrow range. The Empire State index came in weaker than expected. The Fed's Bullard predicted that the e...
06/15/2009
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MBS prices are up +26/32 (FNMA 30-yr 4.5 at 97.47), above the initial price level at -1/32. Today's Retail Sales and Jobless Claims data came in stronger than expected, but had little impact. Higher than average demand for the 30-yr Treasury auction lifted MBS markets. The Dow rose 25 points. Tom...
06/11/2009
Today, the Fed's Lacker warned against waiting "too long" to tighten monetary policy once the economic recovery begins. He doesn't know yet when the proper time will be, but he expects that at some point later this year the economy will bottom out and start to move higher. The Fed's Beige Book re...
06/10/2009
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MBS prices are down -18/32 (FNMA 30-yr 5.0 at 99.66), below the initial price level at -6/32. It was another tough session for MBS markets as investors continue to believe that longer-term interest rates are headed (yikes) higher. The Trade Balance came in close to expectations. Demand was strong...
06/10/2009
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MBS prices are up +10/32 (FNMA 30-yr 5.0 at 100.15), just above the initial price level of +9/32. It was a quiet session. No economic data came out today. Demand was stronger than average for the 3-yr Treasury auction, and foreign investors purchased 44% of the total. Oil prices rose above $70 pe...
06/09/2009
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MBS prices are down -26/32 (FNMA 30-yr 4.5 at 97.38), far below the initial price level at -1/32. Despite a lack of major economic news, MBS markets posted large losses. Investor sentiment about future Fed actions has shifted since the release of Friday's stronger than expected Employment report....
06/08/2009
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Next week, the most significant economic data will be the Retail Sales report on Thursday. Retail Sales account for about 70% of economic activity. In addition, the Trade Balance and the Fed's Beige Book will be released on Wednesday. Import Prices and Consumer Sentiment will come out on Friday. ...
06/05/2009
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Investors have been concerned for quite a while about the coming supply of new debt needed to pay for all the government stimulus programs. On top of that, the economic outlook has been improving sooner than expected. The combination of these two potentially inflationary developments pushed mortg...
06/05/2009
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MBS prices are down -26/32 (FNMA 30-yr 4.5 at 98.19), below the initial price level at -17/32. The May Employment report came in much stronger than expected, and MBS markets moved lower. The Dow rose 15 points. For the week, MBS prices fell about -82/32. The Unemployment Rate rose to the highest ...
06/05/2009
